At TED2010, Bill Gates unveiled his vision for the world's energy future, describing the need for "miracles" to avoid planetary catastrophe. The necessary goal? Zero carbon emissions globally by 2050.

Bill Gates' talk from this year’s TED 2010 (www.ted.com) is now online.  It has been described as the year's most important climate speech.  I couldn’t agree more. It can be viewed at http://on.ted.com/89Dt 

For the first time, Bill Gates has come out publicly acknowledging that Climate Change is real, is now, and must be addressed immediately.  Since stepping down as the head of Microsoft, Bill has been focused on using his accumulated business skills and wealth in combination with advanced research to solve some of the world’s biggest issues, like malaria.  Because he runs a private foundation he can move much more quickly and with greater skill than most governments. 

I have known Bill personally since the early days of the PC software industry. He truly is one of the smartest people on earth.  He shines when it comes to taking in enormous amounts of info, sifting through it and arriving at the best and most rational strategy for success.  As a result, we know that he has read everything on the subject of Climate Change, including the basic research itself.  He has also personally interviewed the scientists and grilled them to find any holes in the science, where they exist, and whether they impact the conclusions.  He clearly states that the science is clear.  This is how he ran Microsoft and his approach gets results and also uncovers B.S.  All this goes to say that for anyone that wasn’t sure yet whether Climate Change is real, because they didn’t know whether they can trust the source, can rest assured that there is now a trusted source.  Bill Gates is one of the few people on Earth who cannot be accused of having a hidden agenda or something to gain by promoting the reality of Climate Change. He is already the richest person on the planet and you can tell from his presentation that it pains him to divert attention from the large problems that have been at the center of his thinking for quite some time.  Yet he knows that it is the right (and most important) thing to do and critical that we act now. 

Although the press seems to have focused in on the part of the discussion surrounding his work with Nathan Myhrvold in advanced nuclear power generation, it is important to note that what he presented is a rational strategy that focuses on five (5) key technology areas, that he refers to opportunities for “Energy Miracles”.  What he said is that the only opportunities for achieving a carbon-free energy system resides in one or more of these five areas. Whether we nail it with one or a combination of them, this is where we need to be focusing enough attention and funding so that we are certain to achieve success.  Bill is investing in the possibility of new nuclear technology.  I am betting on an entirely new generation of nano-tech direct solar energy collection.  Such new approaches will dramatically increase the amount of solar energy that can be collective per square foot.  I am optimistic about this approach because it has the potential to achieve very quick and very large capacity advances much the same as we have seen in the micro-processor industry.  Also, when we achieve truly efficient, large and inexpensive solar energy collection, energy storage and efficiency will no longer be an issue of concern.

We often hear that we must do a little bit of everything in order to achieve our carbon-free energy goals.  I cannot recall a time in history or business where such a strategy has ever been effective.  Bill Gates, on the other hand, reminds us that a focused effort on a few promising and likely paths to success make the most sense.  There is no question that he has nailed this aspect of the strategy and we should listen and act accordingly.    

Bill also points out that we must achieve these “Energy Miracles” by a certain deadline. Normally, we get to allow technology advancement to happen at its own pace.  This is a case where we must organize differently.  The best model to describe what we must do now is what we see today in the micro-processor industry.  We must invest in advanced R&D while simultaneously forming multi-disciplinary teams.  Such teams have been proven to innovate together and develop not only the fundamental new technology but the means to manufacture it in massive volumes, all at the same time.  If we hope to achieve our goals, we will need to streamline the “Miracle” development process, based on the best industry practices available today.  Bill also points out that the cost of the early stages of R&D, even in the hundreds of millions of dollars, is “small money” when compared to the deployment stage.  He advocates for a wide deployment of resources to identify the technologies that can scale to the level that we need.  He also advocates funding ideas that just sound crazy too.  This is a very smart strategic approach.  Funding technologies like algae and cellulosic ethanol are losing propositions.  Unless there is a clear technology “learning curve” that leads to appropriate economic outcomes, such investments are a waste of time, money, and worse yet, distractions from achieving the long term goal.

Finally, Bill Gates said “If I can have one wish it would be [getting to zero-carbon energy].   [It] is an important wish but it’s one I think we can achieve”.

I am proud to know that one of our fellow Americans, the one who can most afford to ignore this issue, is doing whatever he can to make a difference.

Jack Oswald

Founder and CEO

SynGest Inc. (www.SynGest.com)

joswald@SynGest.com

About Bill Gates:

A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world once, while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. He plans to do it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.